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UK House Price Index – September 2024

Autumn action starts early as movers spot window of opportunity

 

Average new seller asking prices rise by 0.8% (+£2,974) this month to £370,759. September usually sees a monthly rise in prices, but this year’s increase is double the long-term average, with prices supported by increased activity levels

• The traditionally busier Autumn market appears to have started early, with many movers spotting a window of opportunity to act as mortgage rates trend downwards and property choice increases:

• The number of sales being agreed is up by 27% year on year, a strong rebound compared with last year’s more subdued market as pent-up buyer demand is released

• Home-owners more confident to come to market, with the number of new sellers up by 14% on this time last year, and the average number of available homes for sale per estate agent at its highest since 2014

• However, the market remains cautious, and there are still uncertainties ahead:

• It’s currently taking an average of 60 days for a seller to find a buyer, three days longer than in the more subdued market at this time last year as value-conscious buyers take their time to find the right home at the right price

• The average 5-year fixed mortgage rate is still 4.67%, and while this is lower than the peak of 6.11% in July 2023 nearly double the 2.34% at this time three years ago

• We wait to see any housing announcements made in the Autumn Statement on October 30th

Affordability trends

 

Regional trend

Price & activity trends

Overview

The average price of property coming to the market for sale rises by 0.8% this month (+£2,974) to £370,759. September nearly always sees a rise in prices from August, but this year’s increase of 0.8% is double the long-term average.

This rise in prices beyond the usual seasonal norm has been driven by a strong recovery in activity this summer when compared with the much more subdued market at this time in 2023. It appears that the traditionally busier autumn market has arrived earlier than usual, with many buyers and sellers spotting a window of opportunity to act. Mortgage rates are trending downwards, there’s more property choice for buyers, and earnings are now rising faster than both inflation and house price growth. These factors are all contributing to better conditions for moving. However, despite some strong headline figures this month, beneath the surface the market remains cautious, with pricing right still key for a successful sale. There are still uncertainties ahead, including the timing of a second Bank Rate cut, and which segments of the market could be affected by announcements in October’s Autumn Statement.

The number of sales being agreed between buyers and sellers is up by 27% compared to this time in 2023, a strong rebound compared with last year’s more subdued market.

In positive signs for future sales, the number of potential buyers contacting agents is also up by 15% compared with this time last year. Buyer choice has been improving, and the average number of available homes for sale per estate agency branch is at its highest since 2014, at 33 homes. This has come from a 14% increase in new properties coming to the market for sale compared with last year, but there still isn’t a glut of homes for sale, as this figure is only up by 3% when compared with the more normal pre-pandemic 2019 market. Despite these strong figures, there are signs that the market is still cautious and price-sensitive.

The average property is still taking 60 days to find a buyer, which is three days longer than at this time last year even with better market conditions. This suggests that value-conscious buyers are taking their time to find the right home at the right price, leading to a two-speed market. Attractive homes priced accurately are likely to be met with interest from buyers quickly, while overpriced or poorly presented homes may languish on the sidelines.

Additionally, though the downward direction of mortgage rates is welcome for mover sentiment, they remain high when compared with the period from 2008 to 2022. Our weekly mortgage tracker shows that the average 5-year fixed rate is now 4.67%. While this is lower than the peak of 6.11% in July 2023, it is still nearly double the 2.34% of this time three years ago, before the first of 14 consecutive Bank Rate rises. While some can afford to move and are seizing the current window of opportunity to act, others will still need to wait for mortgage rates to reduce and affordability to improve further.

There are still some uncertainties ahead, with all eyes initially on whether the Bank of England decides to opt for a second consecutive rate cut later this week. Looking further ahead, we wait to see which segments and sectors of the market may be affected by the Autumn Statement.  Real-time data suggests that some sectors are already reacting to the widely mooted increase in capital gains tax, with a record proportion of former rental homes currently on the market for sale, suggesting more landlords are selling up.

 

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