History would suggest that mortgage rates rising from 2% to over 5% would have led to larger price falls than what has been recorded over 2023.
There are several reasons why prices have defied predictions of larger falls. The strength of the labour market has been an important factor along with high earnings growth. Lenders have also pursued forbearance policies to support households struggling with repayments, which has limited the number of forced sellers.
But perhaps the most important factor here has been the tougher mortgage affordability testing for new borrowers since 2015. These regulations were designed to stop households taking on excessive debt at a time of low mortgage rates. They have stopped a major housing over-valuation and built resilience for many households to manage the transition to higher mortgage rates.
While mortgage rates got as low as 1.3% in late 2021, all new mortgage borrowers had to prove to their bank they could afford a 6-7% stressed mortgage rate to get the loan – see chart for the average mortgage stress rate applied to new borrowers. Banks were also limited to 15% of new business at high loan to income ratios over 4.5x.
These regulations have effectively capped buying power for home buyers. They require the borrower to have a higher income to buy and put down a larger deposit, which is especially true in higher value housing markets. ONS data2 shows that first-time buyers in London put down an average deposit of £145,000 in 2022 compared to £26,000 for those buying in the North East.
Today lenders are stress testing new borrowers at close to 9% despite mortgage rates starting to fall. This regulatory constraint on buying power is one reason we believe house prices are unlikely to rise in 2024, even as base rates start to fall later in the year.
First-time buyers to remain largest buyer group in 2024
Despite the affordability challenges facing first-time buyers, they are the largest group of would-be buyers. Our latest consumer survey found that 40% of people looking to buy a home in the next 2 years are first-time buyers.
The rapid growth in rents continues to motivate this group – average rents have risen faster than average mortgage repayments over the last 3 years and despite larger deposits.
Upsizers account for a third of would-be buyers in the next 2 years who will typically be buying a larger home that will require a larger mortgage. This group have been biding their time in 2023 waiting for the outlook on the economy and mortgage rates to become clearer. The trajectory for mortgage rates and getting better value for money will be key considerations for upsizers in 2024.
Buyers look further afield for better value
Almost a quarter of would-be home movers say they are looking to move to a different location. A high proportion of home moves tend to be limited to within local areas – the average distance buyers are looking to move when searching on our partners at Zoopla is 4.3 miles.
However, in the face of higher borrowing costs and the search for value, one of the key trends for 2024 will be buyers continuing to look further afield in search of better value. This is particularly the case in high value housing markets where upsizing is expensive.
Our data shows that up to half of would-be movers currently living in southern regions3 are looking to move more than 10 miles. The proportion looking longer distances in other parts of the UK is lower.
This is important for home builders and estate agents who tend to focus on demand and needs in local areas whereas there is the need to capture and nurture demand coming from further afield, especially as these buyers may well have more money to spend.
We expect the steady momentum in new sales that has developed over the final part of 2023 to continue into early 2024, with the usual seasonal rebound in demand over Q1 as pent-up demand returns to the market.
While mortgage rates are edging lower, affordability remains a key challenge for mortgage-reliant households who are making home moving decisions. The impact of higher mortgage rates continues to feed through with half of mortgagees are yet to move onto higher rates from cheaper fixed rate deals agreed before 2022.
The modest decline in house prices over the year means UK housing still looks 10-15% overvalued at the end of 2023. We expect this position to improve over 2024 as incomes rise and house prices drift 2% lower over the year. Sales volumes are expected to hold steady at 1 million sales completions over 2024.
